What's the probability of making a flush draw given 2 suited hole cards and 2 of the same suit on the flop?

Question

Given that you are dealt 2 suited hole cards, and 2 cards of your same suit come down on the flop, what are the chances that you will have made your flush draw when the river card comes?

Answer 1

The probability of completing a flopped flush draw by the river is about 1 in 2.6, or 39%

Answer 2

I think the original answer proposed by the poster was more accurate. Remember that there is a rough way to estimate odds at the table. Take your number of outs and multiply by four. Then remember that the more outs you have, the more this estimation will be over the actual odds. So, if you have 9 cards of your suit remaining, the odds should be less than 36% to make your flush.



However, I don't think your calculations are perfect. You are forgetting that it is posssible for the turn and the river to be of your flush suit. In that case, you would still make your flush, but I don't think your calculations allow for that possibility. You have only calculated the odds for one or the other being of your suit, but not both.

Answer 3

35% on the turn or river.

19.6% on the river.



http://simulator.pokertips.org/odds.php